Housing Is on the Ballot: Why Housing Costs Dominate the 2026 Midterms
Published November 2, 2026
Housing costs are not a side issue in the 2026 midterm elections — for many voters, they are the issue. Two-thirds of Americans (66%) say they are very concerned about the cost of housing, according to Pew Research. A CNBC survey in July found affordability is the top concern for Gen Z voters and for men aged 18 to 44.
The numbers explain why. Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies reports that 49% of households spend more than 30% of their income on housing. Spending over that 30% line is what housing experts call being "cost-burdened" — and once housing takes that much of a paycheck, saving for a down payment, or even keeping up with other bills, gets much harder.
The four states where housing could decide the Senate
Control of the U.S. Senate may run through four toss-up states — Maine, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas — and each one has a housing story of its own.
Maine: a rental shortage you can count in hours
Maine is short roughly 20,000 rental homes for its lowest-income residents, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition. At the state's $15.10 minimum wage, a worker would need to put in about 67 hours a week to afford a typical one-bedroom apartment at $1,323 a month. That math is why housing keeps surfacing in Maine's race.
Ohio: nearly one in ten households pays over half their income
About 1.3 million Ohioans — roughly 9% of the state — spend over half their income on housing, a level experts call "severely cost-burdened." For every 100 extremely low-income renter households in Ohio, there are only about 37 affordable rental homes available. Meanwhile, two-bedroom rents in the state rose 28% between January 2020 and January 2025.
Iowa: a smaller shortage, a different squeeze
Iowa's shortage is about 8,000 homes and is currently expected to close by 2028. The squeeze there looks different: property taxes make up 18.4% of the monthly cost of owning a home, and a household needs about 42% more income than the average household earns to afford a typical 20% down payment.
Texas: locked in place
Texas tells the lock-in story. One family bought their home in 2014 for $230,000. Homes nearby have since nearly doubled in price while wages have not — so moving up, or even moving at all, means giving up a home they could never afford to buy again today. Low rates from years past, rising prices, and flat wages have frozen a lot of Texas homeowners in place.
What this means if you're buying, selling, or renting
Elections don't set your mortgage rate, but they shape the rules around housing: property taxes, zoning, renter protections, and programs for first-time buyers. If you live in one of these four states, the results on November 3 could affect your housing costs more directly than most national headlines suggest.
If you're planning a move in the next year, the practical step is the same in any political climate: work with a local agent who knows how your city and state rules affect your budget. Our free AI agent match pairs you with local experts based on your situation, and our guide on how to find a real estate agent walks through what to look for.
FAQ
Why is housing such a big issue in the 2026 midterms?
Because costs are squeezing nearly everyone: 66% of Americans say they are very concerned about housing costs, and 49% of households spend more than 30% of their income on housing.
What does "cost-burdened" mean?
A household is cost-burdened when housing takes more than 30% of its income — the long-standing recommended ceiling. Spending over 50% is considered severely cost-burdened.
Which states are the Senate toss-ups where housing is a top issue?
Maine, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas are rated toss-ups, and each has a distinct housing pressure point — rental shortages, property taxes, or homeowners locked in by price growth.
When is the 2026 midterm election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
We've covered this story in Ep 59 of Brick by Brick, our real estate news podcast: Brick by Brick on YouTube.